Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses

Author:

Gaziano Liam123,Sun Luanluan12,Arnold Matthew,Bell Steven12345ORCID,Cho Kelly6,Kaptoge Stephen K.123,Song Rebecca J.7,Burgess Stephen12839,Posner Daniel C.1ORCID,Mosconi Katja123,Robinson-Cohen Cassianne10,Mason Amy M.2839ORCID,Bolton Thomas R.25,Tao Ran11,Allara Elias235ORCID,Schubert Petra1,Chen Lingyan2,Staley James R.2,Staplin Natalie12ORCID,Altay Servet13,Amiano Pilar141516,Arndt Volker17ORCID,Ärnlöv JohanORCID,Barr Elizabeth L.M.1819ORCID,Björkelund Cecilia12,Boer Jolanda M.A.20ORCID,Brenner Hermann2122ORCID,Casiglia Edoardo23ORCID,Chiodini Paolo24ORCID,Cooper Jackie A.25,Coresh Josef26ORCID,Cushman Mary27ORCID,Dankner Rachel282930,Davidson Karina W.30ORCID,de Jongh Renate T.31ORCID,Donfrancesco Chiara32,Engström Gunnar33ORCID,Freisling Heinz34,de la Cámara Agustín Gómez1635ORCID,Gudnason Vilmundur36ORCID,Hankey Graeme J.37ORCID,Hansson Per-Olof3839ORCID,Heath Alicia K.40ORCID,Hoorn Ewout J.41ORCID,Imano Hironori42ORCID,Jassal Simerjot K.43,Kaaks Rudolf43,Katzke Verena43ORCID,Kauhanen Jussi44,Kiechl Stefan4546ORCID,Koenig Wolfgang474849ORCID,Kronmal Richard A.50ORCID,Kyrø Cecilie51ORCID,Lawlor Deborah A.5253,Ljungberg Börje54ORCID,MacDonald Conor55ORCID,Masala Giovanna56ORCID,Meisinger Christa57,Melander Olle33,Moreno Iribas Conchi5859,Ninomiya Toshiharu60ORCID,Nitsch Dorothea61,Nordestgaard Børge G.626364ORCID,Onland-Moret Charlotte65ORCID,Palmieri LuigiORCID,Petrova Dafina166667,Garcia Jose Ramón Quirós68,Rosengren Annika3839ORCID,Sacerdote Carlotta69,Sakurai Masaru70,Santiuste Carmen1671,Schulze Matthias B.727374ORCID,Sieri Sabina75ORCID,Sundström Johan76ORCID,Tikhonoff Valérie77ORCID,Tjønneland Anne5178,Tong Tammy79ORCID,Tumino Rosario80,Tzoulaki Ioanna40ORCID,van der Schouw Yvonne T.65ORCID,Monique Verschuren W.M.2065,Völzke Henry81,Wallace Robert B.82,Wannamethee S. Goya83ORCID,Weiderpass Elisabete34ORCID,Willeit Peter246ORCID,Woodward Mark84ORCID,Yamagishi Kazumasa85ORCID,Zamora-Ros Raul86ORCID,Akwo Elvis A.10,Pyarajan Saiju687,Gagnon David R.88ORCID,Tsao Philip S.8990ORCID,Muralidhar Sumitra91,Edwards Todd L.9293ORCID,Damrauer Scott M.94ORCID,Joseph Jacob195ORCID,Pennells Lisa23ORCID,Wilson Peter W.F.9697,Harrison Seamus2,Gaziano Thomas A.9598ORCID,Inouye Michael231999100,Baigent Colin101,Casas Juan P.16,Langenberg Claudia102103ORCID,Wareham Nick102ORCID,Riboli Elio104,Gaziano J.Michael16,Danesh John283599,Hung Adriana M.105ORCID,Butterworth Adam S.283599ORCID,Wood Angela M.283599,Di Angelantonio Emanuele283599ORCID,Koettgen Anna,Shaw Jonathan,Atkins Robert,Zimmet Paul,Whincup Peter,Willeit Peter,Willeit Johann,Leitner Christoph,Casiglia Edoardo,Tikhonoff Valérie,Tybjaerg-Hansen Anne,Schnohr Peter,Afzal Shoaib,Pablos David Lora,Arriscado Cristina Martin,Ferreiro Carmen Romero,Wallace Robert B.,Stocker Hannah,Schöttker Ben,Holleczek Bernd,Chetrit Angela,Welin Lennart,Svärdsudd Kurt,Welin Lennart,Svärdsudd Kurt,Lissner Lauren,Hange Dominique,Mehlig Kirsten,Nagel Dorothea,Norman Paul E.,Almeida Osvaldo,Flicker Leon,Hata Jun,Honda Takanori,Furuta Yoshihiko,Iso Hiroyasu,Kitamura Akihiko,Muraki Isao,Salonen Jukka T.,Tuomainen Tomi-Pekka,van Zutphen E. M.,van Schoor N. M.,Donfrancesco Chiara,Lo Noce Cinzia,Palmieri Luigi,Cushman Mary,Kronmal Richard,Koenig Wolfgang,Meisinger Christa,Lappas Georg,Nilsson Peter M.,Melander Olle,Hedblad Bo,Nitsch Dorothea,Cooper Jackie A.,Shaffer Jonathan,Schwartz Joseph,Shimbo Daichi,Sato Shinichi,Iso Hiroyasu,Hayama-Terada Mina,Jassal Simerjot,Aspelund Thor,Thorsson Bolli,Sigurdsson Gunnar,Chaker Layal,Ikram Kamran M.,Kavousi Maryam,Tunstall-Pedoe Hugh,Woodward Mark,Völzke Henry,Can Günay,Yüksel Hüsniye,Özkan Uğur,Nakagawa Hideaki,Morikawa Yuko,Ishizaki Masao,Ärnlöv Johan,Arndt Volker,Feskens Edith,Geleijnse Johanna M,Kromhout Daan

Affiliation:

1. Massachusetts Veterans Epidemiology Research and Information Center (MAVERIC), VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA (L.G., K.C., R.J.S., D.C.P., P.S., J.J., J.P.C., J.M.G.).

2. BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care (L.G., L.S., S. Bell, S.K.K., S. Burgess, K.M., A.M.M., T.R.B., E.A., L.C., J.R.S., P.W., L. Pennells, S.H., M.I., J.D., A.S.B., A.M.W., E.D.A.)

3. Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge UK (L.G., S. Bell, S.K.K., S. Burgess, K.M., A.M.M., E.A., L. Pennells, M.I., J.D., A.S.B., A.M.W., E.D.A.).

4. Stroke Research Group, Department of Clinical Neurosciences (S. Bell), University of Cambridge, UK.

5. NIHR Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Behaviour (S. Bell, T.R.B., E.A., J.D., A.S.B., A.M.W., E.D.A.), University of Cambridge, UK.

6. Division of Aging (K.C., S.P., J.P.C. J.M.G.), Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.

7. Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, MA (R.J.S.).

8. BHF Centre of Research Excellence, School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrooke’s Hospital (A.M.M., S. Burgess, J.D., A.M.W., A.S.B., E.D.A.)

9. Medical Research Council Biostatistics Unit (A.M.M., S. Burgess), University of Cambridge, UK.

10. Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine (C.R.-C., E.A.A.), Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN.

11. Department of Biostatistics (R. Tao), Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN.

12. Medical Research Council Population Health Research Unit, Clinical Trial Service Unit and Epidemiological Studies Unit (N.S., C.B.), Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK.

13. Department of Cardiology, Trakya University School of Medicine, Edirne, Turkey (S.A.).

14. Ministry of Health of the Basque Government, Sub Directorate for Public Health and Addictions of Gipuzkoa, San Sebastián, Spain (P.A.).

15. Biodonostia Health Research Institute, Epidemiology of Chronic and Communicable Diseases Group, San Sebastián, Spain (P.A.).

16. Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Madrid, Spain (P.A., A.G.d.l.C., D.P., C. Santiuste).

17. Division of Clinical Epidemiology and Aging Research (V.A.), German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.

18. Wellbeing & Preventable Chronic Diseases (WPCD) Division, Menzies School of Health Research, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, NT, Australia (E.L.M.B.).

19. Baker Heart and Diabetes Institute, Melbourne, VIC, Australia (E.L.M.B., M.I.).

20. National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands (J.M.A.B., W.M.M.V.).

21. Division of Family Medicine and Primary Care, Department of Neurobiology, Care Sciences and Society (NVS), Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden (J.A., H.B.).

22. Network Aging Research (NAR), Heidelberg University, Germany (H.B.).

23. Studium Patavinum (E.C.), University of Padua, Italy.

24. Dipartimento di Salute Mentale e Fisica e Medicina Preventiva, Università degli Studi della Campania ‘Luigi Vanvitelli’, Caserta, Italy (P.C.).

25. William Harvey Research Institute, NIHR Barts Biomedical Research Centre, Queen Mary University of London, UK (J.A.C.).

26. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).

27. Larner College of Medicine, The University of Vermont, Burlington (M.C.).

28. The Gertner Institute for Epidemiology and Health Policy Research, Sheba Medical Center, Tel Hashomer, Israel (R.D.).

29. School of Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv, Israel (R.D.).

30. Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research, Northwell Health, Manhasset, New York, NY (R.D., K.W.D.).

31. Amsterdam University Medical Centers, VUMC, the Netherlands (R.T.d.J.).

32. Department of Cardiovascular, Endocrine-metabolic Diseases and Aging, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy (C.D., L. Palmer).

33. Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö, Lund University, Sweden (G.E., O.M.).

34. International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), World Health Organization, Lyon, France (H.F., E.W.).

35. 12 Octubre Hospital Research Institute, Madrid, Spain (A.G.d,l,C.).

36. Faculty of Medicine, University of Iceland, Reykjavik, Iceland and Icelandic Heart Association, Kopavogur, Iceland (V.G.).

37. Medical School Faculty of Health & Medical Sciences, The University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia (G.J.H.).

38. Institute of Medicine, Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine (P.-O.H., A.R.), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden.

39. Region Västra Götaland, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Department of Medicine Geriatrics and Emergency Medicine/Östra, Gothenburg, Sweden (P.-O.H., A.R.).

40. School of Public Health (A.K.H., I.T., E.R.), Imperial College London, UK.

41. Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Nephrology and Transplantation, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, the Netherlands (E.J.H.).

42. Public Health, Department of Social Medicine, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Japan (H.I.)

43. Department of Cancer Epidemiology (S.K.J., R.K., V.K.), German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), Heidelberg, Germany.

44. University of Eastern Finland (UEF), Kuopio, Finland (J.K.).

45. Department of Neurology & Neurosurgery, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria (S.K.).

46. Clinical Epidemiology Team, Institute of Health Economics, Medical University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria (S.K., P.W.).

47. Institute of Epidemiology and Medical Biometry, University of Ulm, Germany (W.K.).

48. Deutsches Herzzentrum München, Technische Universität München, Germany (W.K.).

49. German Centre for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Munich Heart Alliance (W.K.).

50. School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle (R.A.K.).

51. Danish Cancer Society Research Center, Copenhagen, Denmark (C.K., A.T.).

52. Medical Research Council Integrative Epidemiology Unit, University of Bristol, UK (D.A.L.).

53. Population Health Science, Bristol Medical School, UK (D.A.L.).

54. Department of Surgical and Perioperative sciences, Urology and Andrology, Umeå University, Sweden (B.L.).

55. University Paris-Saclay, UVSQ, Inserm, Villejuif, France (C. MacDonald).

56. Institute for Cancer Research, Prevention and Clinical Network (ISPRO), Florence, Italy (G.M.).

57. Helmholtz Zentrum München, Munich, Germany (C. Meisinger).

58. Navarra Public Health Institute, IdiSNA, Pamplona, Spain (C.M.I.).

59. Red de Investigación en Servicios de Salud en Enfermedades Crónicas (REDISSEC), Pamplona, Spain (C.M.I.).

60. Graduate School of Medical Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan (T.N.).

61. London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK (D.N.).

62. Herlev and Gentofte Hospital (B.G.N.), Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark.

63. Frederiksberg Hospital B.G.N.), Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark.

64. Department of Clinical Medicine, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences (B.G.N.), University of Copenhagen, Denmark.

65. Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, the Netherlands (C.O.-M., Y.T.v.d.S., W.M.M.V.).

66. Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública (EASP), Granada, Spain (D.P.).

67. Instituto de Investigación Biosanitaria ibs.GRANADA, Granada, Spain (D.P.).

68. Consejería de Sanidad del Principado de Asturias Oviedo, Asturias, Spain (J.R.Q.G.).

69. Unit of Cancer Epidemiology, Città della Salute e della Scienza University-Hospital, Turin, Italy (C. Sacerdote).

70. Department of Social and Environmental Medicine, Kanazawa Medical University, Uchinada, Japan (M.S.).

71. Department of Epidemiology, Murcia Regional Health Council, IMIB-Arrixaca, Spain (C. Santiuste).

72. German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Nuthetal, Germany (M.B.S.).

73. German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD), Neuherberg, Germany (M.B.S.).

74. Institute of Nutritional Science, University of Potsdam, Germany (M.B.S.).

75. Fondazione IRCCS Istituto Nazionale dei Tumori di Milano, Milano, Italy (S.S.).

76. Department of Medical Sciences, Uppsala University, Sweden (J.S.).

77. Department of Medicine (V.T.), University of Padua, Italy.

78. Department of Public Health (A.T.), University of Copenhagen, Denmark.

79. Cancer Epidemiology Unit (T.T.), Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, UK.

80. Hyblean Association for Epidemiological Reserach AIRE - ONLUS, Ragusa, Italy (R.T.).

81. Universitätsmedizin Greifswald, Institut für Community Medicine, Abteilung SHIP/ Klinisch-Epidemiologische Forschung, Germany (H.V.).

82. College of Public Health, University of Iowa (R.B.W.).

83. University College London, UK (S.G.W.).

84. The George Institute for Global Health, Camperdown, NSW, Australia (M.W.).

85. Department of Public Health Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, and Health Services Research and Development Center, University of Tsukuba, Japan (K.Y.).

86. Unit of Nutrition and Cancer, Epidemiology Research Program, Catalan Institute of Oncology, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute (IDIBELL), L’Hospitalet de Llobregat (Barcelona), Spain (R.Z.-R.).

87. Center for Data and Computational Sciences, VA Boston Healthcare System, Boston, MA (S.P.).

88. Department of Biostatistics, Boston University School of Public Health, MA (D.R.G.).

89. VA Pal Alto Epidemiology Research and Information Center for Genomics, VA Palo Alto Health Care System, CA (P.S.T.).

90. Medicine (Cardiovascular Medicine), Stanford University of School of Medicine, CA (P.S.T.).

91. Office of Research and Development, Veterans Health Administration, Washington, DC (S.M.).

92. Department of Veterans Affairs, Tennessee Valley Health Care System, Vanderbilt University, Nashville (T.L.E.).

93. Medicine/Epidemiology, Vanderbilt Genetics Institute, Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville, TN (T.L.E.).

94. Department of Surgery, Corporal Michael Crescenz VA Medical Center and Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia (S.M.D.).

95. Division of Cardiovascular Medicine (J.J., T.A.G.), Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.

96. Internal Medicine, VA Atlanta Healthcare System, Decatur, GA (P.W.F.W.).

97. Emory University School of Medicine (Cardiology), Emory University, Atlanta, GA (P.W.F.W.).

98. Center for Health Decision Science, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA (T.A.G.).

99. Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, UK (M.I., J.D., A.S.B., A.M.W., E.D.A.)

100. The Alan Turing Institute, London, UK (M.I.).

101. Institute of Medicine, School of Public Health and Community Medicine (C.B.), Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburg, Sweden.

102. MRC Epidemiology Unit, School of Clinical Medicine (C.L., N.W.), University of Cambridge, UK.

103. Computational Medicine, Berlin Institute of Health at Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany (C.L.).

104. The George Institute for Global Health (M.W.), Imperial College London, UK.

105. Division of Nephrology & Hypertension, Department of Medicine, Tennessee Valley Health Care System and Vanderbilt University Medical Center, Nashville (A.M.H.).

Abstract

Background: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. Methods: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition–Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. Results: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min –1 ·1.73 m –2 , compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min –1 ·1.73 m –2 . Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min –1 ·1.73 m –2 , with a 14% (95% CI, 3%–27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min –1 ·1.73 m –2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min –1 ·1.73 m –2 . Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. Conclusions: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Publisher

Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health)

Subject

Physiology (medical),Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine

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