Projected Global Trends in Ischemic Stroke Incidence, Deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years From 2020 to 2030

Abstract

Background: We projected global trends in ischemic stroke from 2020 to 2030 according to age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) quintile. Methods: Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were used to project trends in the incidence of deaths from and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) due to ischemic stroke between 2020 and 2030. EAPCs were computed using generalized additive models and data from the Global Burden of Disease study during the 1990 to 2019 period. Results: The global age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke was projected to increase to 89.32 per 100 000 population in 2030 (EAPC=0.89), whereas the associated global age-standardized death and DALY rates were projected to decrease to 18.28 (EAPC, −3.58) and 500.37 per 100 000 (EAPC=−1.75), respectively, in 2030. The projections indicated a higher age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke among women than among men in 2030 (90.70 versus 87.64 per 100 000). The incidence rate of ischemic stroke was projected to increase across all age groups and SDI quintiles between 2020 and 2030. At the national level, the greatest increase in the age-standardized incidence rate of ischemic stroke between 2020 and 2030 was projected to occur in Cyprus (EAPC=4.16), followed by Palestine (EAPC=3.50) and South Africa (EAPC=2.64). Additionally, the projections suggested increases in the age-standardized death and DALY rates due to ischemic stroke for countries in low-SDI quintiles (EAPC=3.68 and EAPC=5.30, respectively). Conclusions: The projections indicated that the incidence rate of ischemic stroke will increase both sexes, all age groups, and all SDI quintiles and in some countries between 2020 and 2030. Furthermore, countries with a low SDI should be aware of potential increases in the age-standardized death and DALY due to ischemic stroke.