Predicting Ball Flight in Cricket from an Umpire's Perspective

Abstract

This study examined accuracy of ball flight predictions and error source for judging leg-before-wicket (LBW) in cricket using a video-based decision making task. Twenty-six club-elite umpires, 33 club-intermediate umpires, and 12 control participants viewed videos which depicted the typical view of an Umpire's perspective. Participants were asked to predict the final ball position at the stumps after the video was temporally occluded, using a computer cursor. Videos were occluded at two points, ball bounce and two frames post-bounce. Performance was measured using the horizontal and vertical error in pixels. The club-elite and club-intermediate umpires were more accurate than the control group. All groups made less horizontal error compared to vertical error, particularly in the post-bounce condition. Umpires were more certain of their decisions than control participants. The results indicate that umpires possess a domain-specific skill which enables them to more accurately predict ball path, a critical component of LBW judgements. The results also indicate that vertical judgements were poorer overall. This finding implies a specific potential training area for umpires.