Transition to Alternative Fuel Vehicles and Implications for Energy Demand and GHG Emissions in Iran

Abstract

A comprehensive well-to-wheel analysis is applied to evaluate the conventional and alternative fuel production pathways and the corresponding vehicle powertrains from economic, technological and environmental perspectives. Well-to-tank section determines fuel cost, fuel availability, and supply chain emissions. Tank-to-wheel section simulates the long-term evolution of light-duty vehicle fleet using a consumer vehicle choice model. Consumers adopt the new vehicles based on their preferences towards vehicle attributes, fuel cost, GHG emissions and fuel availability. Different scenarios are compared to evaluate the effects of technology improvement, energy prices, emission cost and fuel availability on diffusion of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), fuel demand and GHG emissions in Iran.