Prediction of incident diabetes mellitus by baseline IGF1 levels

Abstract

ObjectiveIGF1 is associated with metabolic parameters and involved in glucose metabolism. Low-IGF1 has been implicated in the etiology of glucose intolerance and subjects with pathological causes of either low- or high-IGF1 are at risk of diabetes. We hypothesized that both low- and high-IGF1 levels increase the risk of diabetes and aimed to assess the role of IGF1 in the risk of developing diabetes in a large prospective study.DesignAn analysis of two prospective cohort studies, the DETECT study and SHIP.MethodsWe measured IGF1 levels in 7777 nondiabetic subjects and assessed incident diabetes mellitus during follow-up.ResultsThere were 464 cases of incident diabetes during 32 229 person-years (time of follow-up in the DETECT study and SHIP: 4.5 and 5 years respectively). There was no heterogeneity between both studies (P>0.4). The hazard ratios (HRs) of incident diabetes in subjects with IGF1 levels below the 10th or above the 90th age- and sex-specific percentile, compared to subjects with intermediate IGF1 levels, were 1.44 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07–1.94) and 1.55 (95% CI 1.06–2.06) respectively, after multiple adjustment. After further adjustment for metabolic parameters, the HR for low-IGF1 became insignificant. Analysis of IGF1 quintiles revealed a U-shaped association of IGF1 with risk of diabetes. Results remained similar after exclusion of patients with onset of new diabetes within 1 year or with borderline glucose or HbA1c levels at baseline.ConclusionsSubjects with low- or high-IGF1 level are at increased risk of developing diabetes.