Reconstructing the Hubble Parameter with Future Gravitational-wave Missions Using Machine Learning

Abstract

Abstract We study the prospects of Gaussian processes (GPs), a machine-learning (ML) algorithm, as a tool to reconstruct the Hubble parameter H(z) with two upcoming gravitational-wave (GW) missions, namely, the evolved Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (eLISA) and the Einstein Telescope (ET). Assuming various background cosmological models, the Hubble parameter has been reconstructed in a nonparametric manner with the help of a GP using realistically generated catalogs for each mission. The effects of early-time and late-time priors on the reconstruction of H(z), and hence on the Hubble constant (H 0), have also been focused on separately. Our analysis reveals that a GP is quite robust in reconstructing the expansion history of the Universe within the observational window of the specific missions under consideration. We further confirm that both eLISA and ET would be able to provide constraints on H(z) and H 0, which would be competitive to those inferred from current data sets. In particular, we observe that an eLISA run of a ∼10 yr duration with ∼80 detected bright siren events would be able to constrain H 0 as precisely as a ∼3 yr ET run assuming ∼1000 bright siren event detections. Further improvement in precision is expected for longer eLISA mission durations such as a ∼15 yr time frame having ∼120 events. Lastly, we discuss the possible role of these future GW missions in addressing the Hubble tension, for each model, on a case-by-case basis.