Cholesterol and triglyceride levels in midlife and risk of heart failure in women, a longitudinal study: the prospective population study of women in Gothenburg

Abstract

ObjectiveTo examine the association between triglycerides and cholesterol serum values and risk of developing heart failure in women.DesignLongitudinal observational study of four cohorts 50-year-old women examined in 1968–1969, 1980–1981, 1992–1993 and 2004–2005, and followed until 2012. S-triglycerides and s-cholesterol were measured at baseline and heart failure morbidity and mortality data collected from 1980 to 2012.SettingProspective population study Gothenburg, Sweden. Primary care.Participants1143 women 50 year old without history of heart failure or myocardial infarction.Main outcome measureAssociation among s-triglycerides, s-cholesterol and heart failure expressed as HR for heart failure, adjusted for smoking, body mass index (BMI), physical activity and age.ResultsFor 50-year-old women examined in 1968–1969, there was an independent association between level of s-triglycerides and heart failure and a significantly higher risk of developing heart failure (HR 1.8; CI 1.16 to 2.80, for each increment of 1.0 mmol/L in s-triglycerides), adjusted for smoking, BMI, physical activity and age. There was no significant association between s-cholesterol and risk of heart failure (HR 0.9; CI 0.77 to 1.15). In the cohorts of 50-year-old women examined in 1980 and 1992, there were no significant associations between neither s-triglycerides or s-cholesterol and the risk of heart failure. In the pooled analyses of the cohorts examined in 1968, 1980 and 1992, a significantly increased risk of heart failure was found (HR 1.49; CI 1.10 to 2.03) for s-triglycerides independently, but not for s-cholesterol. None of the 50-year-old women examined in 2004–2005 developed heart failure by 2012 and were excluded from further analyses.ConclusionsHigh levels of s-triglycerides but not s-cholesterol may be a risk marker for later development of heart failure in 50-year-old women.