Persistent post-flood hillslope activity posing a potential landslide dam hazard in the Ahr valley, Germany

Abstract

Abstract Background Extreme floods are known to severely reorganise inhabited landscapes by inundation, clogging, scouring and damaging infrastructure and lives. However, their post-event impacts are poorly understood, especially concerning coupled hillslope channel feedbacks such as the reactivation of slope instabilities connected to the river and that may be able to block it upon sudden failure. The July 2021 Ahr valley flood exemplified this ability of concurrent and sustained landscape reorganisation. Here, we study a retrogressive slope instability near the town of Müsch, in the upper Ahr valley using field mapping, repeat airborne laser scanning, electrical resistivity tomography and passive seismic monitoring to reveal the failure geometry, its mechanisms and transient activity. Results The old landslide developed in lower Devonian rocks. It is 100 m wide, 200 m long and approximately 15–20 m deep, which leads to a total volume of about 430,000 m3. This landslide was severely undercut by the 2021 flood with 7000 m3 of material eroded at the landslide toe. The landslide has started to react. Given the narrow section of the river at this location, there is a potential landslide dam hazard. We modelled the inundation volumes and back fill times for different failure scenarios, ranging between 20,000 m3 and 330,000 m3 accumulating within 5 min and 20 h. Conclusions Our results imply a need to systematically screen flood impacted landscapes for sustained post-event hillslope activity that governs hillslope-channel coupling, driving both persistent sediment injection into the stream and sudden river blocking and subsequent damming.