Characterization of tropospheric ozone pollution, random forest trend prediction and analysis of influencing factors in South-western Europe

Abstract

AbstractNowadays, environmental problems have gradually become the focus of world attention. In recent years, heat waves in many parts of Europe have increased ozone concentrations, fuelling ozone pollution. Therefore, this paper investigates the spatial and temporal distribution of tropospheric column ozone concentrations in South-western Europe, future trend changes, influencing factors, and potential source regions based on remotely sensed monitoring data from the OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) from 2011 to 2021. The results show that the areas of high tropospheric column ozone concentrations are mainly concentrated in the northwest, Poland, and southeast coastal areas. At the same time, the monthly variation curve of column ozone concentration is bimodal. Trend change analyses indicate an upward trend in future column ozone concentrations in the southeastern part of the study area. The potential for increases also exists in parts of Germany, France, and Poland, which will need to be monitored. Random forest model projections found a slight decrease in column ozone concentrations in 2022 and 2023 of about 1–4 DU compared to tropospheric column ozone concentrations in 2021. The health risk assessment found that the number of all-cause premature deaths due to exposure to ozone was the highest in Germany. During the summer, when ozone pollution is high, the potential source area in the southeastern part of the study area is located at the border of the three countries, and synergistic management is recommended. In exploring the correlation between the influencing factors and ozone, it was found that there is a significant difference between the long-time and short-time series. In addition, the pathway analysis shows that the population size, distribution density, and forested area in southwestern Europe may be more sensitive to the production of tropospheric ozone.