Screening high-risk individuals for primary gastric carcinoma: evaluating overall survival probability score in the presence and absence of lymphatic metastasis post-gastrectomy

Abstract

Abstract Objective The aim of this study was to develop and validate prognostic models for predicting overall survival in individuals with gastric carcinoma, specifically focusing on both negative and positive lymphatic metastasis. Methods A total of 1650 patients who underwent radical gastric surgery at Shanxi Cancer Hospital between May 2002 and December 2020 were included in the analysis. Multiple Cox Proportional Hazards analysis was performed to identify key variables associated with overall survival in both negative and positive lymphatic metastasis cases. Internal validation was conducted using bootstrapping to assess the prediction accuracy of the models. Calibration curves were used to demonstrate the accuracy and consistency of the predictions. The discriminative abilities of the prognostic models were evaluated and compared with the 8th edition of AJCC-TNM staging using Harrell’s Concordance index, decision curve analysis, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. Results The nomogram for node-negative lymphatic metastasis included variables such as age, pT stage, and maximum tumor diameter. The C-index for this model in internal validation was 0.719, indicating better performance compared to the AJCC 8th edition TNM staging. The nomogram for node-positive lymphatic metastasis included variables such as gender, age, maximum tumor diameter, neural invasion, Lauren classification, and expression of Her-2, CK7, and CD56. The C-index for this model was 0.674, also outperforming the AJCC 8th edition TNM staging. Calibration curves, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves, and decision curve analysis for both nomograms demonstrated excellent prediction ability. Furthermore, significant differences in prognosis between low- and high-risk groups supported the models’ strong risk stratification performance. Conclusion This study provides valuable risk stratification models for lymphatic metastasis in gastric carcinoma, encompassing both node-positive and negative cases. These models can help identify low-risk individuals who may not require further intervention, while high-risk individuals can benefit from targeted therapies aimed at addressing lymphatic metastasis.