Association of body temperature and mortality in critically ill patients: an observational study using two large databases

Abstract

Abstract Background Body temperature (BT) is routinely measured and can be controlled in critical care settings. BT can impact patient outcome, but the relationship between BT and mortality has not been well-established. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted based on the MIMIC-IV (N = 43,537) and eICU (N = 75,184) datasets. The primary outcome and exposure variables were hospital mortality and first 48-h median BT, respectively. Generalized additive models were used to model the associations between exposures and outcomes, while adjusting for patient age, sex, APS-III, SOFA, and Charlson comorbidity scores, temperature gap, as well as ventilation, vasopressor, steroids, and dialysis usage. We conducted subgroup analysis according to ICU setting, diagnoses, and demographics. Results Optimal BT was 37 °C for the general ICU and subgroup populations. A 10% increase in the proportion of time that BT was within the 36–38 °C range was associated with reduced hospital mortality risk in both MIMIC-IV (OR 0.91; 95% CI 0.90–0.93) and eICU (OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.85–0.87). On the other hand, a 10% increase in the proportion of time when BT < 36 °C was associated with increased mortality risk in both MIMIC-IV (OR 1.08; 95% CI 1.06–1.10) and eICU (OR 1.18; 95% CI 1.16–1.19). Similarly, a 10% increase in the proportion of time when BT > 38 °C was associated with increased mortality risk in both MIMIC-IV (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.07–1.12) and eICU (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.08–1.11). All patient subgroups tested consistently showed an optimal temperature within the 36–38 °C range. Conclusions A BT of 37 °C is associated with the lowest mortality risk among ICU patients. Further studies to explore the causal relationship between the optimal BT and mortality should be conducted and may help with establishing guidelines for active BT management in critical care settings.