Exploring flexible polynomial regression as a method to align routine clinical outcomes with daily data capture through remote technologies

Abstract

Abstract Background Clinical outcomes are normally captured less frequently than data from remote technologies, leaving a disparity in volumes of data from these different sources. To align these data, flexible polynomial regression was investigated to estimate personalised trends for a continuous outcome over time. Methods Using electronic health records, flexible polynomial regression models inclusive of a 1st up to a 4th order were calculated to predict forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) over time in children with cystic fibrosis. The model with the lowest AIC for each individual was selected as the best fit. The optimal parameters for using flexible polynomials were investigated by comparing the measured FEV1 values to the values given by the individualised polynomial. Results There were 8,549 FEV1 measurements from 267 individuals. For individuals with > 15 measurements (n = 178), the polynomial predictions worked well; however, with < 15 measurements (n = 89), the polynomial models were conditional on the number of measurements and time between measurements. The method was validated using BMI in the same population of children. Conclusion Flexible polynomials can be used to extrapolate clinical outcome measures at frequent time intervals to align with daily data captured through remote technologies.