Author:
Song Wen-Yu,Zang Pan,Ding Zhong-Xing,Fang Xin-Yu,Zhu Li-Guo,Zhu Ya,Bao Chang-Jun,Chen Feng,Wu Ming,Peng Zhi-Hang
Abstract
Abstract
Background
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic met coincidentally with massive migration before Lunar New Year in China in early 2020. This study is to investigate the relationship between the massive migration and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in China.
Methods
The epidemic data between January 25th and February 15th and migration data between Jan 1st and Jan 24th were collected from the official websites. Using the R package WGCNA, we established a scale-free network of the selected cities. Correlation analysis was applied to describe the correlation between the Spring Migration and COVID-19 epidemic.
Results
The epidemic seriousness in Hubei (except the city of Wuhan) was closely correlated with the migration from Wuhan between January 10 and January 24, 2020. The epidemic seriousness in the other provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions was largely affected by the immigration from Wuhan. By establishing a scale-free network of the regions, we divided the regions into two modules. The regions in the brown module consisted of three municipalities, nine provincial capitals and other 12 cities. The COVID-19 epidemics in these regions were more likely to be aggravated by migration.
Conclusions
The migration from Wuhan could partly explain the epidemic seriousness in Hubei Province and other regions. The scale-free network we have established can better evaluate the epidemic. Three municipalities (Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin), eight provincial capitals (including Nanjing, Changsha et al.) and 12 other cities (including Qingdao, Zhongshan, Shenzhen et al.) were hub cities in the spread of COVID-19 in China.
Funder
Natural Science Foundation of China
National S&T Major Project Foundation of China
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Infectious Diseases,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,General Medicine
Reference13 articles.
1. Riou J, Althaus CL. Pattern of early human-to-human transmission of Wuhan 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV), December 2019 to January 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020;25:4.
2. Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, Hu B, Zhang L, Zhang W, et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin. Nature. 2020. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7.
3. Nishiura H, Jung SM, Linton NM, Kinoshita R, Yang Y, Hayashi K, et al. The extent of transmission of novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, 2020. J Clin Med. 2020;9:2.
4. Barabasi AL. Scale-free networks: a decade and beyond. Science. 2009;325(5939):412–3.
5. Youssef M, Khorramzadeh Y, Eubank S. Network reliability: the effect of local network structure on diffusive processes. Phys Rev E Stat Nonlinear Soft Matter Phys. 2013;88:5.
Cited by
11 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献