New Trauma Score versus Kampala Trauma Score II in predicting mortality following road traffic crash: a prospective multi-center cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Mortality due to injuries disproportionately impact low income countries. Knowledge of who is at risk of poor outcomes is critical to guide resource allocation and prioritization of severely injured. Kampala Trauma Score (KTS), developed in 1996 and last modified in 2002 as KTS II, is still widely being used to predict injury outcomes in resource-limited settings with no further revisions in the past two decades, despite ongoing criticism of some of its parameters. The New Trauma Score (NTS), a recent development in 2017, has shown potential in mortality prediction, but a dearth of evidence exist regarding its performance in the African population. Objectives To compare NTS to the modified Kampala Trauma Score (KTS II) in the prediction of 30-day mortality, and injury severity amongst patients sustaining road traffic crashes in Ugandan low-resource settings. Methods Multi-center prospective cohort study of patients aged 15 years and above. Of the 194 participants, 85.1% were males with a mean age of 31.7 years. NTS and KTS II were determined for each participant within 30-minutes of admission and followed-up for 30 days to determine their injury outcomes. The sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) for predicting mortality were compared between the two trauma scores using SPSS version 22. Ethical clearance: Research and Ethics Committee of Kampala International University Western Campus (Ref No: KIU-2022-125). Results The injury severity classifications based on NTS vs. KTS II were mild (55.7% vs. 25.8%), moderate (29.9% vs. 30.4%), and severe (14.4% vs. 43.8%). The mortality rates for each injury severity category based on NTS vs. KTS II were mild (0.9% v 0%), moderate (20.7% vs. 5.1%), and severe (50% vs. 28.2%). The AUC was 0.87 for NTS (95% CI 0.808–0.931) vs. 0.86 (95% CI 0.794–0.919) for KTS II respectively. The sensitivity of NTS vs. KTS II in predicting mortality was 92.6% (95% CI: 88.9–96.3) vs. 70.4% (95% CI: 63.0-77.8) while the specificity was 70.7% (95% CI: 64.2–77.2) vs. 78.4% (95% CI: 72.1–84.7) at cut off points of 17 for NTS and 6 for KTS II respectively. Conclusions NTS was more sensitive but its specificity for purposes of 30-day mortality prediction was lower compared to KTS II. Thus, in low-resourced trauma environment where time constraints and pulse oximeters are of concern, KTS II remains superior to NTS.