The associations of risk of cardiovascular disease with development stages of diabetes in Chinese population: findings from a retrospective cohort study in QuZhou city

Abstract

Abstract Background Risk analysis is an important area of research in diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD), both of which have significant global health burdens. Although there is evidence that patients with prediabetes and diabetes mellitus may have an increased risk of CVD, few studies have been conducted in mainland China. Methods This retrospective cohort study utilized data from the Quzhou City Resident Health Information System and the Zhejiang Province Chronic Disease Surveillance System in China. Prediabetes and diabetes mellitus were the exposure interests, and the outcome event was defined as the onset of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease (including coronary heart disease and stroke). The start date of the study was January 1, 2015, and the follow-up deadline was December 31, 2020. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard model were used to assess the associations among prediabetes, diabetes, and CVD risk. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. Our study used follow-up time as the time scale, while adjusting for age, sex, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, BMI in the models Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the stability of the results, by excluding participants who smoked and drank alcohol, participants who developed CVD in the first year of follow-up. Results In total, 138,970 participants were included in our study, with a mean follow-up of 5.8 years. The mean age of the participants was 58.82 ± 14.44 years, with 42.79% (n = 59,466) males and 57.21% (n = 79,504) females. During the study period 4357 cases of CVD were recorded. Participants with prediabetes (P = 0.003) and diabetes (P < 0.001) had a higher risk of CVD than those who were Normal (HR [95% CI]: 1.14 [1.05–1.24]; 1.68 [1.55–1.81], respectively). Prediabetes and patients living with diabetes had a 14% and 68% increased risk of CVD, respectively. The results of the sensitivity analyses were consistent with those of the main analyses after excluding those who developed CVD within one year of follow-up and those who were concurrent smokers or alcohol drinkers. Conclusions Our research found that prediabetes is significantly associated with the risk of diabetes and CVD.