Author:
Yuan Jiaying,Cheng Zhiyuan,Feng Jian,Xu Chang,Wang Yi,Zou Zixiu,Li Qiang,Guo Shicheng,Jin Li,Jiang Gengxi,Shang Yan,Wu Junjie
Abstract
Abstract
Objectives
The aim of this study was to explore risk factors for the prognosis of lung cancer with simple brain metastasis (LCSBM) patients and to establish a prognostic predictive nomogram for LCSBM patients.
Materials and methods
Three thousand eight hundred and six cases of LCSBM were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2010 to 2015 using SEER Stat 8.3.5. Lung cancer patients only had brain metastasis with no other organ metastasis were defined as LCSBM patients. Prognostic factors of LCSBM were analyzed with log-rank method and Cox proportional hazards model. Independent risk and protective prognostic factors were used to construct nomogram with accelerated failure time model. C-index was used to evaluate the prediction effect of nomogram.
Results and conclusion
The younger patients (18–65 years old) accounted for 54.41%, while patients aged over 65 accounted for 45.59%.The ratio of male: female was 1:1. Lung cancer in the main bronchus, upper lobe, middle lobe and lower lobe were accounted for 4.91%, 62.80%, 4.47% and 27.82% respectively; and adenocarcinoma accounted for 57.83% of all lung cancer types. The overall median survival time was 12.2 months. Survival rates for 1-, 3- and 5-years were 28.2%, 8.7% and 4.7% respectively. We found female (HR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.75–0.87), the married (HR = 0.80; 95% CI 0.75–0.86), the White (HR = 0.90, 95% CI 0.84–0.95) and primary site (HR = 0.45, 95% CI 0.39–0.52) were independent protective factors while higher age (HR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.40–1.62), advanced grade (HR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.12–1.25) and advanced T stage (HR = 1.09, 95% CI 1.05–1.13) were independent risk prognostic factors affecting the survival of LCSBM patients. We constructed the nomogram with above independent factors, and the C-index value was 0.634 (95% CI 0.622–0.646). We developed a nomogram with seven significant LCSBM independent prognostic factors to provide prognosis prediction.
Funder
National Natural Science Foundation of China
Shanghai Postdoctoral Science Foundation
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine
Cited by
2 articles.
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