Time trend of global uterine cancer burden: an age-period-cohort analysis from 1990 to 2019 and predictions in a 25-year period

Abstract

Abstract Background Uterine cancer remains a serious medical problem worldwide. This study aimed to explore the global time trends of uterine cancer burden using the age-period-cohort model and forecast incidence to 2044. Methods Data were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate age, period and birth cohort effects. We also predict uterine cancer incidence to 2044. Results Globally, there were 435,041 incident cases (95% UI: 245,710 to 272,470) and 91,640 deaths of uterine cancer (95% UI: 39,910 to 44,140) in 2019. During the past 30 years, the age-standardized incidence and death rates increased by 15.3% and decreased by 21.6%, respectively. Between 1990 and 2019, the high-sociodemographic index region had the highest overall annual percentage changes. The age effect showed the uterine cancer incidence rate first increased and then decreased with age. The period and cohort relative rate ratio showed upward trends during the study period. Incident cases of uterine cancer may increase to more than six hundred thousand in 2044. Conclusion Uterine cancer causes a high disease burden in high-income regions and the global incidence may continue to increase in the future. Improving awareness of risk factors and reducing the proportion of the obese population are necessary to reduce future burden.