Development and validation of a nomogram for prediction of cervical lymph node metastasis in middle and lower thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Abstract

Abstract Background Estimates of cervical lymph node (LN) metastasis in patients with middle and lower thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) are important. A nomogram is a useful tool for individualized prediction. Methods A total of 235 patients were enrolled in this study. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to screen for independent risk factors and construct a nomogram to predict the risk of cervical LN metastasis. The nomogram performance was assessed by discrimination, calibration, and clinical use. Results Totally, four independent predictors, including the maximum diameter of tumor, paraesophageal lymph node status, recurrent laryngeal nerve lymph node status, and the CT-reported cervical LN status, were enrolled in the nomogram. The AUC of the nomogram model in the training and validation dataset were 0.833 (95% CI 0.762–0.905), 0.808 (95% CI 0.696–0.920), respectively. The calibration curve demonstrated a strong consistency between nomogram and clinical findings in predicting cervical LN metastasis. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful. Conclusion We developed a nomogram that could be conveniently used to predict the individualized risk of cervical LN metastasis in patients with middle and lower thoracic ESCC.