The common incidence-age multistep model of neurodegenerative diseases revisited: wider general age range of incidence corresponds to fewer disease steps

Abstract

Abstract Background Previously, we collected age-stratified incidence data of 404 epidemiological datasets of 10 neurodegenerative diseases (NDs), namely Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS), Alzheimer’s disease (AD), Parkinson’s disease (PD), Huntington’s disease (HD), Fronto Temporal Dementia (FTD), Dementia with Lewy Bodies (DLB), Parkinsonism (PDM), Parkinson’s disease with Dementia (PDD), Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease (CJD), and Multiple Sclerosis (MS). We tested whether each ND follows a multistep model, found the number of steps necessary for the onset of each ND, found the number of common steps with other NDs and the number of specific steps of each ND, and built a parsimony tree of the genealogy of the NDs. The tree disclosed three groups of NDs: the stem NDs with less than 3 steps; the trunk NDs with 5–7 steps; and the crown NDs with more than 7 steps. Methods We made a multidimensional reduction of the previously collected age-stratified incidence epidemiological data of the 10 NDs. We studied the general range of incidence of the 10 NDs using the age- and sex-stratified incidence data. First, we calculated the log of the incidence versus the log of the age for each ND. Next, we calculated the age intervals of the spread of the incidence of each ND. We calculated the regression of the steps obtained with the multistep model versus the age of incidence of the NDs. Results We found that the number of steps of the NDs is inversely correlated with the age of incidence of the NDs, and calculated the number of years required for a single step for each ND. Based on these results, we extended the genealogy tree model of the NDs to account for the time needed for a ND step to occur. Conclusion The extended genealogy tree disclosed three groups of NDs according to the estimated time needed for a step to occur: the stem ND, HD, with 32.5 years/step, the trunk NDs ALS, FTD, PD and CJD, with 6.7–13.7 years/step; and the crown NDs PDM, PDD, AD and DLB, with 2.3–3.8 years/step. Thus, the NDs cluster into three groups according to both the number of steps and the number of years for a step to occur.