Decadal analysis of measles epidemiological data in India (2011–2020)

Abstract

Abstract Background Despite India being one of the largest contributors to the measles burden, crucial epidemiological information is significantly lacking. We have analyzed the national-level representative data between 2011 and 2020 to estimate the national- and state-level incidence, first dose vaccine coverage, and mortality; and developed a prediction model to examine the trend of the disease. Methods We extracted the Health Management Information System (HMIS) for monthly aggregated measles cases, deaths, and child immunization (9–11 months) for first dose measles vaccine coverage across all states & Union Territories (UT). Population information & projections were extracted based on Census 2011. A multilevel fixed effect panel data model was used to predict measles incidence rate, assuming measles vaccination coverage as a predictor while accounting for time fixed effects. Results Total 558,536 measles cases and 4209 measles deaths were reported in India between 2010 and 2020. The incidence rate was highest in 2013 (628.8/million population), followed by a significant decline to reach 52.0/million in 2020. Measles vaccination coverage for the first dose was 84.1% in 2011 to 91.3% in 2019. Higher vaccination coverage was significantly correlated (r = 0.7, p = 0.02) with decline of measles incidence rate. The case fatality rate (CFR) was least in 2014 (0.13%) but upsurged consistently reaching to 3.3% in 2020. The predictive model indicates that with a first-dose vaccine coverage of 93.5%, and keeping other factors constant, the national measles incidence is projected to reach zero by 2025. Conclusion Measles incidence is declining in India due to higher vaccination coverage, yet the rise in death rates emphasizes the need for continued collaborative efforts to achieve a measles-free nation.