Construction and evaluation of a column chart model and a random forest model for predicting the prognosis of hydrodistention surgery in BPS/IC patients based on preoperative CD117, P2X3R, NGF, and TrkA levels

Abstract

Abstract Objective This study seeks to investigate independent risk factors affecting the prognoses of patients with bladder pain syndrome/interstitial cystitis (BPS/IC) following hydrodistention surgery and to develop a column chart model and a random forest model to help predict clinical outcomes. Method A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 1006 BPS/IC patients who visited the urology department of the Fifth Hospital of Shanxi Medical University (Shanxi Provincial People's Hospital) between June 2012 and June 2022. The patients were randomly divided into a model group (n = 704) and a validation group (n = 302). In the model group, logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors, which were used to construct a prognostic nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated by analyzing the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve. These results were subsequently validated via consistency analysis (n = 302). And based on the random forest algorithm, we calculate the same data and construct a random forest model. Result Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age and the expression of the biomarkers CD117, P2X3R, NGF, and TrkA were independent prognostic factors for patients with BPS/IC (P < 0.05). Using these five indicators, a nomogram was developed to predict the risk factors for BPS/IC (scores ranged from 0 to 400). Based on the indicators, the nomogram demonstrated good prognostic performance (AUC = 0.982 and 95% confidence interva is 0.960–0.100). The correction curve indicated a high level of differentiation in the model, and the decision curve suggested positive clinical benefits. The random forest model has high accuracy and good calibration in predicting the prognosis of patients with interstitial cystitis after hydrodistention surgery. Conclusion Age, CD117, P2X3R, NGF, and TrkA are independent prognostic factors for bladder pain syndrome/interstitial cystitis. The column chart model and random forest model constructed based on these indicators have good predictive performance for patient prognosis.