Association between BMI trajectories in late-middle age and subsequent dementia risk in older age: a 26-year population-based cohort study

Abstract

Abstract Background The association between body mass index (BMI) and dementia risk differs depending on follow-up time and age at BMI measurement. The relationship between BMI trajectories in late-middle age (50–65 years old) and the risk of dementia in older age (> 65 years old) has not been revealed. Methods In the present study, participants from the Health and Retirement Study were included. BMI trajectories were constructed by combining BMI trend and variation information. The association between BMI trajectories at the age of 50–65 years and dementia risk after the age of 65 years was investigated. Participants with European ancestry and information on polygenic scores for cognitive performance were pooled to examine whether genetic predisposition could modify the association. Results A total of 10,847 participants were included in the main analyses. A declining BMI trend and high variation in late-middle age were associated with the highest subsequent dementia risk in older age compared with an ascending BMI trend and low variation (RR = 1.76, 95% CI = 1.45–2.13). Specifically, in stratified analyses on BMI trajectories and dementia risk based on each individual's mean BMI, the strongest association between a declining BMI trend with high variation and elevated dementia risk was observed in normal BMI group (RR = 2.66, 95% CI = 1.72–4.1). Similar associations were found when participants were stratified by their genetic performance for cognition function without interaction. Conclusions A declining BMI trend and high variation in late-middle age were associated with a higher risk of dementia. Early monitoring of these individuals is needed to prevent dementia in older individuals.