Cumulative live birth rates for low-prognosis women over 5 years or 9 frozen-thawed embryo transfer cycles

Abstract

Abstract Background For heterogeneous populations of low-prognosis women, it remains unclear as to how long individuals should continue undergoing ART when attempting to have a baby, as there have been insufficient studies to date tracking the cumulative live birth rates (CLBRs) for these women over the entire course of their ART treatment, particularly over extended time periods. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of 17,698 women at a tertiary care academic medical center who had begun undergoing IVI/ICSI cycles using a progestin-primed ovarian stimulation (PPOS) approach between January 2013 and January 2019. Low-prognosis patients were stratified into four groups based upon POSEIDON criteria, with patients exhibiting normal or high ovarian reserves and response to stimulation (defined as AFC ≥5, > 9 oocytes retrieved) being included as controls (group 5). The CLBR within 5 years or 9 FET cycles from the ovum pick-up (OPU) day of the first cycle was the primary endpoint for this study, including all repetitive oocyte retrieval cycles and subsequent FET cycles. Optimistic and conservative approaches were used for the analysis of CLBRs and the depiction of cumulative incidence curves. Results Under both optimistic and conservative model analyses, normal and good responders exhibited the highest CLBR within 5 years or 9 FET cycles, followed by younger unexpected poor responders, younger expected poor responders, older unexpected poor responders, and older expected poor responders. Upward trends in CLBRs were evident across the five groups with the prolongation of time or an increase in FET cycle counts. Within the first 2 years or 3 FET cycles, the CLBRs rose rapidly, followed by more moderate increases over the following 2–3.5 years or 4–6 cycles, with expected poor responders exhibiting the most obvious improvements. All Patients reached a CLBR plateau after 3.5 years or 6 FET cycles. Conclusions All low-prognosis women should undergo ART treatment for a minimum of 2 years or 3 FET cycles, and exhibit better outcomes when extending ART treatment to 3.5 years or 6 FET cycles (particularly for POSEIDON groups 3 and 4), but should consider ceasing further treatment thereafter due to a lack of apparent benefit.