Model for predicting the recurrence of atrial fibrillation after monopolar or bipolar radiofrequency ablation in patients with AF and mitral valve disease

Abstract

Abstract Objectives This study aimed to identify the risk factors for postoperative atrial fibrillation in patients with valvular atrial fibrillation, and establish predictive models of atrial fibrillation recurrence. Methods Overall, 224 patients who underwent radiofrequency ablation of atrial fibrillation from November 2014 to November 2020 were included. The statistical package for social sciences, X-tile, and R-studio were used for statistical analysis. Results Patients were divided into training and validation sets according to a ratio of 3:1. The training set was analysed using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis and showed that preoperative uric acid > 401 μmol/L (P = 0.006), B-type natriuretic peptide > 202 ng/L (P = 0.042), hypersensitivity C-reactive protein > 6.1 mg/L (P = 0.026), erythrocyte sedimentation rate > 7.0 mm/h (P = 0.016), preoperative left atrial diameter > 48 mm (P = 0.031) were significantly correlated with the recurrence of atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency ablation in patients with valvular atrial fibrillation. In the training set, a Cox regression model of the five related factors was established using the R language. The C-index of the model was 0.82, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.831 (P < 0.001). Internal and external verification was performed in the training and validation sets, respectively, and both showed that the fit of the verification curve was relatively good at 3 months, 6 months, 1 year, and 3 years postoperatively. After calculating the weight of each related factor using the nomogram, a new risk predictive model (BLUCE) for postoperative atrial fibrillation was established. Conclusions In patients with atrial fibrillation, preoperative uric acid, B-type natriuretic peptide, hypersensitivity C-reactive protein, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and left atrial diameter are risk factors for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter recurrence after radiofrequency ablation. The BLUCE predictive model can distinguish high-risk groups of postoperative atrial fibrillation. High-risk patients in the BLUCE model were more likely to experience recurrence of atrial fibrillation after radiofrequency ablation and a low possibility of maintaining sinus rhythm.