Trends, Skill, and Sources of Skill in Initialized Climate Forecasts of Global Mean Temperature

Abstract

AbstractWe evaluate the skill and sources of skill in initialized seasonal climate forecasts of monthly global mean temperature from the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME) during the period 1991–2024. The forecasts demonstrate skill in addition to that from the long‐term trend, and that skill is primarily attributable to ENSO. However, the skill varies seasonally, with skill being lowest for target periods during Northern Hemisphere summer. Single model ensembles show underdispersion at short leads, while the multi‐model ensemble is overdispersed, suggesting initial condition errors and highlighting the importance of model initialization for quantification of forecast uncertainty. Lead‐time dependent errors in global mean temperature trends appear related to Pacific trend errors. The multi‐model mean captured the overall trend but underestimated the record‐breaking temperatures of 2023. Forecasts for the remainder of 2024 indicate cooling by the end of the year.