Affiliation:
1. Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
2. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Nanjing China
3. College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing China
4. National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of China Beijing China
Abstract
AbstractClimate models are widely used to project future climate changes and analyze underlying mechanisms. However, it remains unknown whether the earlier precipitation projections match the subsequent observations in recent decades, which is the scientific basis for the confidence of precipitation projections and associated impacts. Here, we find models in the Third (TAR), Fourth (AR4), and Fifth (AR5) Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) skillfully project the subsequent climatological changes in global mean land precipitation for 2002–2020, 2008–2020, and 2014–2020 (relative to 1980–1999 climatology) from several to 10 years ahead, respectively. Skillful regional projections are mainly found in the northern mid to high latitudes. IPCC models are less skillful in projecting subsequent changes in land precipitation at regional scales than at global scales, which is likely to be at least partly explained by the lower signal‐to‐noise ratio.
Publisher
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Subject
Space and Planetary Science,Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous),Atmospheric Science,Geophysics