Pan‐Antarctic Assessment of Ice Shelf Flexural Responses to Ocean Waves

Abstract

AbstractUnderstanding the drivers of iceberg calving from Antarctic ice shelves is important for future sea level rise projections. Ocean waves promote calving by imposing stresses and strains on the shelves. Previous modeling studies of ice shelf responses to ocean waves have focused on highly idealized geometries with uniform ice thickness and a flat seabed. This study leverages on a recently developed mathematical model that incorporates spatially varying geometries, combined with measured ice shelf thickness and seabed profiles, to conduct a statistical assessment of how 15 Antarctic ice shelves respond to ocean waves over a broad range of relevant wave periods, from swell to infragravity waves to very long period waves. The results show the most extreme responses at a given wave period are generated by features in the ice shelves and/or seabed geometries, depending on the wave regime. Relationships are determined between the median ice shelf response and the median shelf front thickness or the median water cavity depth. The findings provide further evidence of the role of ocean waves in large‐scale calving events for certain ice shelves (particularly the Wilkins) and indicate a possible role of ocean waves in calving events for other shelves (Larsen C and Conger). Further, the relationships determined provide a method to assess the potential for increased calving as ice shelves evolve with climate change, and, hence, contribute to assessments of future sea level rise.