The Effect of Initial Vortex Asymmetric Structure on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change in Response to an Imposed Environmental Vertical Wind Shear

Abstract

AbstractPrevious studies have investigated how the environmental vertical wind shear (VWS) may trigger the asymmetric structure in an initially axisymmetric tropical cyclone (TC) vortex and how TC intensity changes in response. In this study, the possible effect of the initial vortex asymmetric structure on the TC intensity change in response to an imposed environmental VWS is investigated based on idealized full‐physics model simulations. Results show that the effect of the asymmetric structure in the initial TC vortex can either enhance or suppress the initial weakening of the TC in response to the imposed environmental VWS. When the initial asymmetric structure is in phase of the VWS‐induced asymmetric structure, the TC weakening will be enhanced and vice versa. Our finding calls for realistic representation of initial TC asymmetric structure in numerical weather prediction models and observations to better resolve the asymmetric structure in TCs.