Socio-Economic Modelers of Environmental Performance: Empirical Evidence from the European Union

Abstract

Abstract The environment represents one of the main collective responsibilities of the current period, marked by accelerated economic development. In the context of increasingly pronounced ecological deterioration and less sustainable practices, the level of involvement of decision-makers and the population has become a great challenge. Beyond legislative mechanisms, which can help states improve their environmental performance, an important role is also played by knowing the direct and indirect factors that can act on this performance. The specialized literature approaches environmental performance from various angles, most studies being focused on analysis tools and how to measure it, and less on the factors that can shape it at the national level. In this context, our approach takes into account the synergies between the environmental performance at the level of the European Union member states (measured by the Environmental Performance Index - EPI) and the selected economic-social factors. The selected sample includes the 27 member states of the European Union, the analysis being carried out for the period 2006-2022. The research methodology is based on Bayesian network analysis through Gaussian graphical models. The obtained results show that environmental performance is closely related to economic and social factors, through positive or negative connections, the relationship being bidirectional. Our approach is thus intended to be useful in providing a series of information to support decision-makers both in the implementation of environmental policy at the European level and in the adjustment of some national regulations.