Influenza Vaccination, Household Composition, and Race-Based Differences in Influenza Incidence: An Agent-Based Modeling Study

Abstract

Objectives. To estimate the effect of influenza vaccination disparities. Methods. We compared symptomatic influenza cases between Black and White races in 2 scenarios: (1) race- and age-specific vaccination coverage and (2) equal vaccination coverage. We also compared differences in household composition between races. We used the Framework for Reconstructing Epidemiological Dynamics, an agent-based model that assigns US Census‒based age, race, households, and geographic location to agents (individual people), in US counties of varying racial and age composition. Results. Influenza cases were highest in counties with higher proportions of children. Cases were up to 30% higher in Black agents with both race-based and race-equal vaccination coverage. Compared with corresponding categories of White households, cases in Black households without children were lower and with children were higher. Conclusions. Racial disparities in influenza cases persisted after equalizing vaccination coverage. The proportion of children in the population contributed to the number of influenza cases regardless of race. Differences in household composition may provide insight into racial differences and offer an opportunity to improve vaccination coverage to reduce influenza burden for both races. ( Am J Public Health. 2025;115(2):209–216. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307878 )