Prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in advanced gastric cancer: A radiomics nomogram analysis based on CT images and clinicopathological features

Abstract

PURPOSE: To investigate the feasibility of predicting the early response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) in advanced gastric cancer (AGC) based on CT radiomics nomogram before treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The clinicopathological data and pre-treatment portal venous phase CT images of 180 consecutive AGC patients who received 3 cycles of NAC are retrospectively analyzed. They are randomly divided into training set (n = 120) and validation set (n = 60) and are categorized into effective group (n = 83) and ineffective group (n = 97) according to RECIST 1.1. Clinicopathological features are compared between two groups using Chi-Squared test. CT radiomic features of region of interest (ROI) for gastric tumors are extracted, filtered and minimized to select optimal features and develop radiomics model to predict the response to NAC using Pyradiomics software. Furthermore, a nomogram model is constructed with the radiomic and clinicopathological features via logistic regression analysis. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis is used to evaluate model performance. Additionally, the calibration curve is used to test the agreement between prediction probability of the nomogram and actual clinical findings, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) is performed to assess the clinical usage of the nomogram model. RESULTS: Four optimal radiomic features are selected to construct the radiomics model with the areas under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.754 and 0.743, sensitivity of 0.732 and 0.750, specificity of 0.729 and 0.708 in the training set and validation set, respectively. The nomogram model combining the radiomic feature with 2 clinicopathological features (Lauren type and clinical stage) results in AUCs of 0.841 and 0.838, sensitivity of 0.847 and 0.804, specificity of 0.771 and 0.794 in the training set and validation set, respectively. The calibration curve generates a concordance index of 0.912 indicating good agreement of the prediction results between the nomogram model and the actual clinical observation results. DCA shows that patients can receive higher net benefits within the threshold probability range from 0 to 1.0 in the nomogram model than in the radiomics model. CONCLUSION: CT radiomics nomogram is a potential useful tool to assist predicting the early response to NAC for AGC patients before treatment.