Prediction and decision making in corona virus using fuzzy mathematical model

Abstract

During the period of 2019–20, forecasting was of utmost priority for health care planning and to combat COVID-19 pandemic. Almost everyone’s life has been greatly impacted by COVID-19. Understanding how the disease spreads is crucial to know how the disease behaves dynamically. The aim of the research is to construct an SEI Q1Q2 R model for COVID-19 with fuzzy parameters. The fuzzy parameters are the transmission rate, the infection rate, the recovery rate and the death rate. We compute the basic reproduction number, using next-generation matrix method, which will be used further to study the model’s prediction. The COVID-free and endemic equilibrium points attain local and global stability when R0 < 1. A sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number against its internal parameter has been done. The results of this model showed that intervention measures. The numerical simulation along with graphical representations at COVID-free and endemic points are shown. The SEIQ1Q2R model is a successful model to analyse the spreading and controlling the epidemics like COVID-19.