A 15-Year Analysis of Supply and Demand for Hematology and Oncology Training in the United States

Abstract

PURPOSE There is a paucity of research on the supply of the hematology and oncology workforce despite projected shortages in the United States Over the past 15 years of the hematology and oncology match (HOM), we hypothesized that there would be more growth in the number of training positions relative to applicants, higher match rates for US allopathic graduates relative to non-US allopathic graduates, and fewer applicants matching at their top fellowship choices. METHODS This was a national, retrospective cohort study of all applicants in the HOM (2009-2023). Match rates and applicant-to-training position ratios were calculated and compared over time with Pearson tests. RESULTS Growth in the number of annual training positions (426-708; 66% increase) exceeded growth in the number of interested applicants (706-945; 34% increase; P < .001). Annual applicant-to-training position ratios decreased from 1.7 to 1.3 ( r = –0.813; P < .001). Match rates increased over the study period for both US allopathic graduates (79%-88%; r = 0.761; P = .001) and non-US allopathic graduates (45%-63%; r = 0.801; P < .001). During each year, match rates for US allopathic graduates exceeded those for non-US allopathic graduates ( P < .001). From 2018 to 2023, US allopathic graduates (83%) had higher match rates than US osteopathic graduates (60%) and international medical graduates (50%; P < .001). The percentage of applicants that matched at one of their top three fellowship choices increased from 53% to 60% ( r = 0.480; P = .070). Fewer available annual training positions went unfilled over the study period (3%-0.3%; r = – 0.870; P < .001). CONCLUSION Match rates have increased in the HOM but remain competitive especially for non-US allopathic graduates. Future investigation is needed to understand disparities in match outcomes by additional applicant and fellowship program characteristics. Ongoing surveillance of HOM outcomes remains critical given the projected shortages in the US hematology and oncology workforce.