Development of a Medicare Health Outcomes Survey Deficit-Accumulation Frailty Index and Its Application to Older Patients With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma

Abstract

Purpose To develop a frailty index using the Rockwood Accumulation of Deficits approach for the Medicare Health Outcomes Survey (MHOS) and apply it in a subset of older patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma. Methods Data from 2,692,361 patients without cancer, > 66 years of age, in SEER-MHOS linked databases between 1998 and 2009 were analyzed. A frailty index was constructed, resulting in a 25-item scale; cutoff values were created for individuals classified as frail. This frailty index was then applied to 305 patients with newly diagnosed myeloma in the database to predict overall survival. Results In the derivation cohort of patients without cancer, the median age was 74 years and the mean frailty index was 0.23 (standard deviation, 0.17). Among patients without cancer, each 10% increase in frailty index (approximately three to four more deficits) was associated with a 40% increased risk for death (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.397; 95% CI, 1.396 to 1.399; P < .001). In the cohort of patients with newly diagnosed myeloma, the median age was 76 years and the mean frailty index was 0.28 (standard deviation, 0.17). Each 10% increase in frailty index was associated with a 16% increased risk for death (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.159; 95% CI, 1.080 to 1.244; P < .001). Fifty-three percent of patients with multiple myeloma were considered frail. The estimated median overall survival of patients considered frail was 26.8 months, compared with 43.7 months ( P = .015) for those who were not. Conclusion The MHOS-based frailty index was prognostic for patients with multiple myeloma in predicting overall survival.