The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
Author:
Kreibich HeidiORCID, Van Loon Anne F.ORCID, Schröter KaiORCID, Ward Philip J.ORCID, Mazzoleni MaurizioORCID, Sairam NiveditaORCID, Abeshu Guta WakbulchoORCID, Agafonova SvetlanaORCID, AghaKouchak AmirORCID, Aksoy HafzullahORCID, Alvarez-Garreton CamilaORCID, Aznar BlancaORCID, Balkhi LailaORCID, Barendrecht Marlies H.ORCID, Biancamaria SylvainORCID, Bos-Burgering LiduinORCID, Bradley ChrisORCID, Budiyono YusORCID, Buytaert WouterORCID, Capewell Lucinda, Carlson Hayley, Cavus YoncaORCID, Couasnon AnaïsORCID, Coxon GemmaORCID, Daliakopoulos IoannisORCID, de Ruiter Marleen C.ORCID, Delus ClaireORCID, Erfurt MathildeORCID, Esposito GiuseppeORCID, François Didier, Frappart FrédéricORCID, Freer Jim, Frolova NataliaORCID, Gain Animesh K.ORCID, Grillakis ManolisORCID, Grima Jordi Oriol, Guzmán Diego A., Huning Laurie S.ORCID, Ionita MonicaORCID, Kharlamov MaximORCID, Khoi Dao NguyenORCID, Kieboom NatalieORCID, Kireeva MariaORCID, Koutroulis AristeidisORCID, Lavado-Casimiro WaldoORCID, Li Hong-YiORCID, LLasat María CarmenORCID, Macdonald DavidORCID, Mård JohannaORCID, Mathew-Richards Hannah, McKenzie AndrewORCID, Mejia AlfonsoORCID, Mendiondo Eduardo MarioORCID, Mens Marjolein, Mobini ShiftehORCID, Mohor Guilherme SamprognaORCID, Nagavciuc VioricaORCID, Ngo-Duc ThanhORCID, Thao Nguyen Huynh ThiORCID, Nhi Pham Thi ThaoORCID, Petrucci OlgaORCID, Nguyen Hong Quan, Quintana-Seguí PereORCID, Razavi SamanORCID, Ridolfi ElenaORCID, Riegel Jannik, Sadik Md ShiblyORCID, Savelli ElisaORCID, Sazonov Alexey, Sharma SanjibORCID, Sörensen JohannaORCID, Arguello Souza Felipe AugustoORCID, Stahl KerstinORCID, Steinhausen MaxORCID, Stoelzle MichaelORCID, Szalińska WiwianaORCID, Tang Qiuhong, Tian FuqiangORCID, Tokarczyk TamaraORCID, Tovar CarolinaORCID, Tran Thi Van ThuORCID, Van Huijgevoort Marjolein H. J.ORCID, van Vliet Michelle T. H.ORCID, Vorogushyn SergiyORCID, Wagener ThorstenORCID, Wang Yueling, Wendt Doris E.ORCID, Wickham Elliot, Yang LongORCID, Zambrano-Bigiarini MauricioORCID, Blöschl GünterORCID, Di Baldassarre GiulianoORCID
Abstract
AbstractRisk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing3. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change3.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
Multidisciplinary
Reference53 articles.
1. Jongman, B. et al. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 112, E2271–E2280 (2015). 2. Formetta, G. & Feyen, L. Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards. Glob. Environ. Change 57, 101920 (2019). 3. IPCC. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (eds Field, C.B. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2012). 4. Bouwer, L. M. Have disaster losses increased due to anthropogenic climate change? Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 92, 39–46 (2011). 5. Ward, P. J. et al. Natural hazard risk assessments at the global scale. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 20, 1069–1096 (2020).
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