Dynamics of a national Omicron SARS-CoV-2 epidemic during January 2022 in England

Author:

Elliott PaulORCID,Eales Oliver,Bodinier BarbaraORCID,Tang DavidORCID,Wang Haowei,Jonnerby Jakob,Haw David,Elliott Joshua,Whitaker MatthewORCID,Walters Caroline E.,Atchison ChristinaORCID,Diggle Peter J.,Page Andrew J.ORCID,Trotter Alexander J.,Ashby DeborahORCID,Barclay WendyORCID,Taylor GrahamORCID,Ward HelenORCID,Darzi AraORCID,Cooke Graham S.ORCID,Chadeau-Hyam MarcORCID,Donnelly Christl A.ORCID

Abstract

AbstractRapid transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has led to record-breaking case incidence rates around the world. Since May 2020, the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study tracked the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection in England through RT-PCR of self-administered throat and nose swabs from randomly-selected participants aged 5 years and over. In January 2022, we found an overall weighted prevalence of 4.41% (n = 102,174), three-fold higher than in November to December 2021; we sequenced 2,374 (99.2%) Omicron infections (19 BA.2), and only 19 (0.79%) Delta, with a growth rate advantage for BA.2 compared to BA.1 or BA.1.1. Prevalence was decreasing overall (reproduction number R = 0.95, 95% credible interval [CrI], 0.93, 0.97), but increasing in children aged 5 to 17 years (R = 1.13, 95% CrI, 1.09, 1.18). In England during January 2022, we observed unprecedented levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection, especially among children, driven by almost complete replacement of Delta by Omicron.

Funder

Department of Health and Social Care in England

Cancer Research UK

EC | Horizon 2020 Framework Programme

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

General Physics and Astronomy,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology,General Chemistry,Multidisciplinary

Reference39 articles.

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