Establishment and validation of nomogram models for overall survival and cancer-specific survival in spindle cell sarcoma patients

Abstract

AbstractSpindle cell sarcoma (SCS) is rare in clinical practice. The objective of this study was to establish nomograms to predict the OS and CSS prognosis of patients with SCS based on the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The data of patients with SCS between 2004 and 2020 were extracted from the SEER database and randomly allocated to a training cohort and a validation cohort. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to screen for independent risk factors for both overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). Nomograms for OS and CSS were established for patients with SCS based on the results of multivariate Cox analysis. Then, we validated the nomograms by the concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Finally, Kaplan‒Meier curves and log-rank tests were applied to compare patients with SCS at three different levels and in different treatment groups. A total of 1369 patients with SCS were included and randomly allocated to a training cohort (n = 1008, 70%) and a validation cohort (n = 430, 30%). Age, stage, grade, tumour location, surgery, radiation and diagnosis year were found to be independent prognostic factors for OS by Cox regression analysis, while age, stage, grade, tumour location and surgery were found to be independent prognostic factors for CSS. The nomogram models were established based on the results of multivariate Cox analysis for both OS and CSS. The C-indices of the OS model were 0.76 and 0.77 in the training and validation groups, respectively, while they were 0.76 and 0.78 for CSS, respectively. For OS, the 3- and 5-year AUCs were 0.801 and 0.798, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.827 and 0.799, respectively, in the validation cohort; for CSS, they were 0.809 and 0.786, respectively, in the training cohort and 0.831 and 0.801, respectively, in the validation cohort. Calibration curves revealed high consistency in both OS and CSS between the observed survival and the predicted survival. In addition, DCA was used to analyse the clinical practicality of the OS and CSS nomogram models and revealed that they had good net benefits. Surgery remains the main treatment method for SCS patients. The two nomograms we established are expected to accurately predict the personalized prognosis of SCS patients and may be useful for clinical decision-making.