The effects of flooding and weather conditions on leptospirosis transmission in Thailand

Author:

Chadsuthi Sudarat,Chalvet-Monfray Karine,Wiratsudakul Anuwat,Modchang Charin

Abstract

AbstractThe epidemic of leptospirosis in humans occurs annually in Thailand. In this study, we have developed mathematical models to investigate transmission dynamics between humans, animals, and a contaminated environment. We compared different leptospire transmission models involving flooding and weather conditions, shedding and multiplication rate in a contaminated environment. We found that the model in which the transmission rate depends on both flooding and temperature, best-fits the reported human data on leptospirosis in Thailand. Our results indicate that flooding strongly contributes to disease transmission, where a high degree of flooding leads to a higher number of infected individuals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the transmission rate of leptospires from a contaminated environment was the most important parameter for the total number of human cases. Our results suggest that public education should target people who work in contaminated environments to prevent Leptospira infections.

Funder

Thailand Research Fund and the Office of the Higher Education Commission

Publisher

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference59 articles.

1. World Health Organization. Leptospirosis, http://www.wpro.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs_13082012_leptospirosis/en/ (2012).

2. Bharti, A. R. et al. Leptospirosis: a zoonotic disease of global importance. Lancet Infect. Dis. 3, 757–771 (2003).

3. Haake, D. A. & Levett, P. N. Leptospira and Leptospirosis 65–97 (Springer, Berlin, 2015).

4. Climatological Group, Meteorological Development Bureau & Meteorological Department. The Climate of Thailand. https://www.tmd.go.th/en/archive/thailand_climate.pdf (2015).

5. Tangkanakul, W. et al. Risk factors associated with leptospirosis in northeastern Thailand, 1998. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 63, 204–208 (2000).

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