Aircraft trajectory prediction and aviation safety in ADS-B failure conditions based on neural network

Abstract

AbstractWith the rapid expansion of transportation demand, the number of global flights has rapidly increased, which also poses challenges to air traffic management (ATM). Considering that the radar system in ATM can no longer meet the requirements of flight safety, a very promising next-generation air traffic control technology—Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) technology has been introduced. However, in the event of on-board equipment failure and local area signal interference, the ADS-B’s signal will disappear or be interrupted. This sudden situation can pose a danger to aviation safety. To solve this problem, this article proposes a bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network prediction method combining historical ADS-B data to short-term predict the trajectory of aircraft, which can improve aviation safety in busy airspace. Firstly, the problem of frequent dynamic modeling of different types of aircraft was solved by utilizing historical ADS-B data as the data source. Secondly, the data cleansing method is proposed for ADS-B raw data. Furthermore, considering that the spatial trajectory of the aircraft is a complex time series with continuity and interactivity, a bidirectional LSTM based aircraft trajectory prediction framework is proposed to further improve prediction accuracy. Finally, a trajectory with frequent changes was selected for prediction, and compared with 7 prediction methods. The results showed that the proposed method had high prediction accuracy, thus also improving the aviation safety of the aircraft.