Author:
Zhang Xianming,Yang Rui,Tan Yuanfei,Zhou Yaoliang,Lu Biyun,Ji Xiaoying,Chen Hongda,Cai Jinwen
Abstract
AbstractA simple prognostic model is needed for ICU patients. This study aimed to construct a modified prognostic model using easy-to-use indexes for prediction of the 28-day mortality of critically ill patients. Clinical information of ICU patients included in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III) database were collected. After identifying independent risk factors for 28-day mortality, an improved mortality prediction model (mionl-MEWS) was constructed with multivariate logistic regression. We evaluated the predictive performance of mionl-MEWS using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), internal validation and fivefold cross validation. A nomogram was used for rapid calculation of predicted risks. A total of 51,121 patients were included with 34,081 patients in the development cohort and 17,040 patients in the validation cohort (17,040 patients). Six predictors, including Modified Early Warning Score, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lactate, international normalized ratio, osmolarity level and metastatic cancer were integrated to construct the mionl-MEWS model with AUROC of 0.717 and 0.908 for the development and validation cohorts respectively. The mionl-MEWS model showed good validation capacities with clinical utility. The developed mionl-MEWS model yielded good predictive value for prediction of 28-day mortality in critically ill patients for assisting decision-making in ICU patients.
Funder
the Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China
the Project of Traditional Chinese Medicine Bureau of Guangdong Province of China
2022 Basic Research Plan of Guizhou Province
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC