A nomogram for predicting lymph node metastasis in early gastric signet ring cell carcinoma

Abstract

AbstractAt present, the risk factors for lymph node metastasis in early gastric signet ring cell carcinoma (SRCC) remain unclear. However, it is worth noting that the LNM rate and prognosis of early gastric SRCC are superior to those of other undifferentiated cancers. With advancements in endoscopic technology, the 5-year survival rate following endoscopic treatment of early gastric cancer is comparable to traditional surgery while offering a better quality of life. The objective of this study was to develop a nomogram that can predict lymph node status in early gastric SRCC before surgery, aiding clinicians in selecting the optimal treatment strategy. A research cohort was established by retrospectively collecting data from 183 patients with early gastric SRCC who underwent radical gastrectomy with lymph node dissection at our hospital between January 2014 and June 2022. The predictors of early gastric signet ring cell carcinoma lymph node metastasis were identified in the study cohort using the least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (Lasso) and multivariate regression analysis, and a nomogram was developed. The discrimination, accuracy, and clinical practicability of the nomogram were assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration curve analysis, and decision curve analysis. The incidence of lymph node metastasis was 21.9% (40/183) overall. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that tumor size and lymphovascular invasion (LVI) were independent risk factors for lymph node metastasis. Lasso regression analysis demonstrated that tumor size, invasion depth, LVI, E-cadherin expression, dMMR, CA242, NLR, and macroscopic type were associated with lymph node metastasis. The integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) (P = 0.034) and net reclassification index (NRI) (P = 0.023) were significantly improved when dMMR was added to model 1. In addition, the area under curve (AUC) (P = 0.010), IDI (P = 0.001) and NRI (P < 0.001) of the model were significantly improved when type_1 was included. Therefore, we finally included tumor size, invasion depth, dMMR, and macroscopic type to establish a nomogram, which had good discrimination (AUC = 0.757, 95% CI 0.687–0.828) and calibration. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram had good clinical performance. We have developed a risk prediction model for early gastric signet ring cell carcinoma that accurately predicts lymph node involvement, providing clinicians with a valuable tool to aid in patient counseling and treatment decision-making.