Author:
Kuźma Łukasz,Kowalewski Mariusz,Wańha Wojciech,Dąbrowski Emil Julian,Jasiński Marek,Widenka Kazimierz,Deja Marek,Bartuś Krzysztof,Hirnle Tomasz,Wojakowski Wojciech,Lorusso Roberto,Tobota Zdzisław,Maruszewski Bohdan J.,Suwalski Piotr,Anisimowicz Lech,Biederman Andrzej,Borkowski Dariusz,Brykczyński Mirosław,Bugajski Paweł,Burysz Marian,Cholewiński Paweł,Cichoń Romuald,Cisowski Marek,Dziatkowiak Antoni,Gburek Tadeusz,Gerber Witold,Gryszko Leszek,Haponiuk Ireneusz,Hendzel Piotr,Jabłonka Stanisław,Jarmoszewicz Krzysztof,Jaszewski Ryszard,Jemielity Marek,Kalawski Ryszard,Kapelak Bogusław,Karolczak Maciej A.,Kaperczak Jacek,Knapik Piotr,Krejca Michał,Kustrzycki Wojciech,Kuśmierczyk Mariusz,Kwinecki Paweł,Markuszewski Leszek,Missima Maurycy,Moll Jacek J.,Ogorzeja Wojciech,Pająk Jacek,Pasierski Michał,Pawliszak Wojciech,Pietrzyk Edward,Religa Grzegorz,Rogowski Jan,Różański Jacek,Sadowski Jerzy,Sharma Girish,Skalski Janusz,MD Jacek Skiba,Stanisławski Ryszard,Stążka Janusz,Stec Sebastian,Stępiński Piotr,Suwalski Grzegorz,Suwalski Kazimierz,Tułecki Łukasz,Wierzba Waldemar,Wojtalik Michał,Woś Stanisław,Zembala Michał Oskar,Żelazny Piotr,
Abstract
AbstractThe study aimed to validate the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation score (EuroSCORE II) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). All data were retrieved from the National Registry of Cardiac Surgery Procedures (KROK). EuroSCORE II calibration and discrimination performance was evaluated. The final cohort consisted of 44,172 patients (median age 67, 30.8% female, 13.4% with AF). The in-hospital mortality rate was 4.14% (N = 1830), and 5.21% (N = 2303) for 30-day mortality. EuroSCORE II significantly underestimated mortality in mild- and moderate-risk populations [Observed (O):Expected (E)—1.1, 1.16). In the AF subgroup, it performed well [O:E—0.99), whereas in the very high-risk population overestimated mortality (O:E—0.9). EuroSCORE II showed better discrimination in AF (−) [area under curve (AUC) 0.805, 95% CI 0.793–0.817)] than in AF (+) population (AUC 0.791, 95%CI 0.767–0.816), P < 0.001. The worst discriminative performance for the AF (+) group was for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (AUC 0.746, 95% CI 0.676–0.817) as compared with AF (−) population (AUC 0.798, 95% CI 0.774–0.822), P < 0.001. EuroSCORE II is more accurate for patients with AF. However, it underestimated mortality rates for low-to-moderate-risk patients and had a lower ability to distinguish between high- and low-risk patients with AF, particularly in those undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC