Exploration of a modified stage for pN0 colon cancer patients

Abstract

AbstractExploring a modified stage (mStage) for pN0 colon cancer patients. 39,637 pN0 colon cancer patients were collected from the SEER database (2010–2015) (development cohort) and 455 pN0 colon cancer patients from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University (2011–2015) (validation cohort). The optimal lymph nodes examined (LNE) stratification for cancer-specific survival (CSS) was obtained by X-tile software in the development cohort. LNE is combined with conventional T stage to form the mStage. The novel N stage was built based on the LNE (N0a: LNE ≥ 26, N0b: LNE = 11–25 and N0c: LNE ≤ 10). The mStage include mStageA (T1N0a, T1N0b, T1N0c and T2N0a), mStageB (T2N0b, T2N0c and T3N0a), mStageC (T3N0b), mStageD (T3N0c, T4aN0a and T4bN0a), mStageE (T4aN0b and T4bN0b) and mStageF (T4aN0c and T4bN0c). Cox regression model showed that mStage was an independent prognostic factor. AUC showed that the predictive accuracy of mStage was better than the conventional T stage for 5-year CSS in the development (0.700 vs. 0.678, P < 0.001) and validation cohort (0.649 vs. 0.603, P = 0.018). The C-index also showed that mStage had a superior model-fitting. Besides, calibration curves for 3-year and 5-year CSS revealed good consistencies between observed and predicted survival rates. For pN0 colon cancer patients, mStage might be superior to conventional T stage in predicting the prognosis.