A nomogram for predicting hemorrhagic shock in pediatric patients with multiple trauma

Abstract

AbstractThe timely detection and management of hemorrhagic shock hold paramount importance in clinical practice. This study was designed to establish a nomogram that may facilitate early identification of hemorrhagic shock in pediatric patients with multiple-trauma. A retrospective study was conducted utilizing a cohort comprising 325 pediatric patients diagnosed with multiple-trauma, who received treatment at the Children's Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Zhejiang, China. For external validation, an additional cohort of 144 patients from a children's hospital in Taizhou was included. The model's predictor selection was optimized through the application of the Least Absolute  Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression. Subsequently, a prediction nomogram was constructed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The performance and clinical utility of the developed model were comprehensively assessed utilizing various statistical metrics, including Harrell's Concordance Index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, calibration curve analysis, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified systolic blood pressure (ΔSBP), platelet count, activated partial thromboplastin time (APTT), and injury severity score (ISS) as independent predictors for hemorrhagic shock. The nomogram constructed using these predictors demonstrated robust predictive capabilities, as evidenced by an impressive area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.963. The model's goodness-of-fit was assessed using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test (χ2 = 10.023, P = 0.209). Furthermore, decision curve analysis revealed significantly improved net benefits with the model. External validation further confirmed the reliability of the proposed predictive nomogram. This study successfully developed a nomogram for predicting the occurrence of hemorrhagic shock in pediatric patients with multiple trauma. This nomogram may serve as an accurate and effective tool for timely and efficient management of children with multiple trauma.