Validating the association of Oxford classification and renal function deterioration among Taiwanese individuals with Immunoglobulin A nephropathy

Abstract

AbstractValidation of the Oxford classification (MEST and MEST-C) for Immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) in the Taiwanese population is lacking. Our study aimed to validate this classification and assess individual lesion impact. We conducted a retrospective cohort study at Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taiwan (Jan 2011–Jul 2023). Composite renal outcomes were evaluated using clinical conditions and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We used Kaplan–Meier, univariable/multivariable logistic regression and ROC curves. Subgroup analysis considered eGFR < or ≥ 30.0 ml/min/1.73 m2. In 366 renal biopsies, serum creatinine was 1.34 mg/dl, eGFR 53.8 ml/min/1.73 m2, urine protein–creatinine ratio 1159 mg/g. T1/T2 lesions had lowest baseline eGFR (39.6/11.5 ml/min/1.73 m2), correlating with poorest renal survival (median survival 54.7/34.4 months). Univariable analysis linked all individual variables to worse renal outcomes. Multivariable analysis (MEST/MEST-C) showed only T1/T2 linked to worse outcomes. T score had highest predictive power (AUC 0.728, sensitivity 60.2%, specificity 83.6%), with MEST having high AUC (0.758). No extra predictive power was seen transitioning MEST to MEST-C. Subgroup analysis (eGFR < 30.0 ml/min/1.73 m2) associated C1 with improved renal outcomes (odds ratio 0.14, 95% CI 0.03–0.65). T lesion correlated with worse outcomes across subgroups. The T lesion consistently correlated with worse renal outcomes across all groups and baseline statuses. Integrating the C lesion into the transition from MEST to MEST-C did not enhance predictive power. Importantly, the C1 lesion was linked to improved renal outcomes in the eGFR < 30.0 ml/min/1.73 m2 subgroup, likely due to treatment effects.