AR6 scenarios database: an assessment of current practices and future recommendations

Abstract

AbstractMitigation scenarios have become an important element of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. We critically assess the curation of the IPCC mitigation scenarios database, with a focus on improving curation and utilisation. The existing method of curation favours particular models, and results may have limited statistical meaning. We draw lessons from experiences with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) used by the IPCC Working Group I and II communities. We propose that the scientific community takes a more active role in curating the database around policy-relevant knowledge gaps, through an open and peer reviewed process of Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) supplemented with individual model studies. The database should be publicly accessible from the time of scenario submission, and actively involve a broad community in developing tools and analysing the database. These suggestions can broaden participation, increase transparency, and enhance the relevance of the database for users.