Clinically informed machine learning elucidates the shape of hospice racial disparities within hospitals

Abstract

AbstractRacial disparities in hospice care are well documented for patients with cancer, but the existence, direction, and extent of disparity findings are contradictory across the literature. Current methods to identify racial disparities aggregate data to produce single-value quality measures that exclude important patient quality elements and, consequently, lack information to identify actionable equity improvement insights. Our goal was to develop an explainable machine learning approach that elucidates healthcare disparities and provides more actionable quality improvement information. We infused clinical information with engineering systems modeling and data science to develop a time-by-utilization profile per patient group at each hospital using US Medicare hospice utilization data for a cohort of patients with advanced (poor-prognosis) cancer that died April-December 2016. We calculated the difference between group profiles for people of color and white people to identify racial disparity signatures. Using machine learning, we clustered racial disparity signatures across hospitals and compared these clusters to classic quality measures and hospital characteristics. With 45,125 patients across 362 hospitals, we identified 7 clusters; 4 clusters (n = 190 hospitals) showed more hospice utilization by people of color than white people, 2 clusters (n = 106) showed more hospice utilization by white people than people of color, and 1 cluster (n = 66) showed no difference. Within-hospital racial disparity behaviors cannot be predicted from quality measures, showing how the true shape of disparities can be distorted through the lens of quality measures. This approach elucidates the shape of hospice racial disparities algorithmically from the same data used to calculate quality measures.