Abstract
AbstractExtreme sea levels impact coastal society, property, and the environment. Various mitigation measures are engineered to reduce these impacts, which require extreme event probabilities typically estimated site-by-site. The site-by-site estimates usually have high uncertainty, are conditionally independent, and do not provide estimates for ungauged locations. In contrast, the max-stable process explicitly incorporates the spatial dependence structure and produces more realistic event probabilities and spatial surfaces. We leverage the max-stable process to compute extreme event probabilities at gridded locations (gauged and ungauged) and derive their spatial surfaces along the contiguous United States coastlines by pooling annual maximum (AM) surges from selected long-record tide gauges. We also generate synthetic AM surges at the grid locations using the predicted distribution parameters and reordering them in the rank space to integrate the spatiotemporal variability. The results will support coastal planners, engineers, and stakeholders to make the most precise and confident decisions for coastal flood risk reduction.
Funder
University of Southern Mississippi Faculty Development Award
National Science Foundation
Publisher
Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences,General Environmental Science
Reference65 articles.
1. Kildow, D. J. T., Colgan, C. S. & Johnston, P. State of the US Ocean and Coastal Economies 2016 Update. https://coast.noaa.gov/states/fast-facts/economics-and-demographics.html (2016).
2. NOAA. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/summary-stats (2023).
3. Hinkel, J. et al. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs under 21st century sea-level rise. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. 111, 3292–3297 (2014).
4. Vousdoukas, M. I. et al. Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard. Nat. Commun. 9, 2360 (2018).
5. Kirezci, E. et al. Projections of global-scale extreme sea levels and resulting episodic coastal flooding over the 21st century. Sci. Rep. 10, 11629 (2020).