Development of a Methodology for Assessment and Analysis of the Export Conjuncture of Russian Manufacturing Enterprises

Author:

Lola I. S.1ORCID

Affiliation:

1. National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE University)

Abstract

The article explains the current methodological approaches to the analysis of the export conjuncture (on the example of Russian ma nufacturing enterprises), including a new methodology for its integral assessment. This assessment is made by modeling the global demand for domestic products and their price competitiveness in the international market.The importance of the analysis of the current phase of Russia's economic development is emphasized, when a structural transformation of industrial and export policy is taking place and a new contour of foreign economic activity is being formed. This necessitates the improvement of methods for export climate assessment. The author underlines the relevance of using not only qualitative and quantitative indicators, but also their hybrid modifications in the economic and statistical analysis of export trends. The article presents a new hybrid measure – the Export Climate Index (ECI), which aggregates the indicators of demand for domestic manufactured goods and their price competitiveness in the international market. The methodology for its calculation is based on theoretical developments, adapted to the specifics of the Russian economy, and the best world practices for measuring and analyzing export trends.The quantified results of business and consumer surveys in the countries that are Russia's main trading partners, as well as the real effective exchange rate of the ruble according to the Bank of Russia, are used for empirical calculations.The calculations results revealed a significant leading correlation between the ECI dynamics and the dynamics of the referent – the indicator of export of goods in value terms, confirming the possibility of using the new index not only for an integral assessment of the export climate in Russia, but also as a short-term predictor that effectively supplements statistical measures.

Publisher

Information and Publishing Centre Statistics of Russia

Subject

General Medicine

Reference20 articles.

1. Lehmann R. Forecasting Exports Across Europe: What are the Superior Survey Indicators? Empirical Economics. 2021;60(5):2429–2453. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-020-01838-y.

2. Kilian L., Rebucci A., Spatafora N. Oil Shocks and External Balances. Journal of International Economics. 2009;77(2):181–194. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001.

3. Sellgren L. Slowdown for Swedish Exports: Export Managers’ Index. Third Quarter 2022. Available from: https://www.business-sweden.com/globalassets/insights/global-analysis/emi/export-managers-index-q3-2022.pdf.

4. Hanslin S., Scheufele R. PMIs: Reliable Indicators for Exports? Review of International Economics. 2019; 27(2):711–734. Available from: https://doi.org/10.1111/roie.12395.

5. IHS Markit. An Introduction to the PMI Surveys. July 18, 2017. Available from: https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/1218/IHS-Markit-PMI-Introduction.pdf.

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3