Nomogram predicting prostate cancer in patients with negative prebiopsy multiparametric magnetic resonance

Abstract

Aim: To build two nomograms for predicting the possibilities of prostate cancer (PCa) and clinically significant PCa (csPCa) in patients with negative prebiopsy multiparametric MRI (mpMRI). Methods: The independent predictors associated with PCa or csPCa in patients with negative mpMRI were determined and served in the construction of the two nomograms. Results: The nomogram predicting PCa consisted of age, positive digital rectal examination, free/total prostate-specific antigen (PSA) ratio and PSA density, while age, positive digital rectal examination and PSA density comprised the nomogram predicting csPCa. The negative predictive value of mpMRI for PCa and csPCa improved from 77.1 and 87.5% to 90.4 and 96.1%, respectively, in the training cohort (n = 376) and from 81.9 and 89.0% to 91.8 and 96.5%, respectively, in the validation cohort (n = 127) when combined with the two nomograms. Conclusion: The negative predictive value of negative mpMRI for the detection of PCa or csPCa was improved with the results of the nomograms.